Emnotion Closes The Gap Between Weather And Climate Forecasting Globally – Our Clients Get What They Expect

Q&A with Ilya Shapira, Emnotion Founder

 

What does Emnotion do?

Shapira: Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get.

Weather forecasting, synoptic – up to 5 days effective.

Climate is actually all forecasts beyond synoptic range.
Emnotion actually closes the gap between weather and climate forecasting globally, so our clients get what they expect.
We develop new approaches and models for making climate forecasts as reliable as available synoptic forecasts.

Our solutions include Big Data analysis, Machine Learning, GIS.

Over 200K virtual weather stations connected into unique neural network for detecting “butterfly effects”. We call it Climate DNA.

 

How can you do it better that the current suppliers?

SHAPIRA: Emnotion is quite alone in this type of forecasts and it makes our solutions so unique and valuable for our clients.

Major differences are:

1. Our forecasts do not update once released, no matter what time range they cover. This enables our clients to get early stage decisions regarding their

Business strategy and risk management.

As an example we supply annual precipitations for specific location in monthly resolution.

1. Our forecasts are locally focused anywhere on the globe. Actually they tailored made for specific demands and risks in aspect of location and business.
2. Our solution are much cheaper, thanks to lean algorithms, low computing forces demand, and automatization of forecasting processes.
3. Besides innovative approach to meteorology data analysis, we use our own NLP engine to search for unique information regarding impact of different climate conditions on business activity and decision making.
   This is important cause in many cases business owners or decision makers do not fully understand the impact of climate on income or losses.

 

What is the importance of weather forecasting for insurance companies?

Shapira:

1. Historically, amid lack of reliable climate forecasts, actuaries still base their analytics on statistical analysis of previous events. Two reasons it is problematic:
   1. Because statistically we have roughly 15% probability we will see same conditions on nearest season. Main reason is that there is a climate change, it always changed, seasonal shifts must be taken in account.
      Synoptic forecasts are not of help for actuaries. Reliable climate forecasts has most economic potential impact on future actuary.
   2. We as a society also change, our environment changes. Our cities become bigger and denser, our infrastructure is more sophisticated and vulnerable. That is a reason in skyrocketing losses during hurricanes and floods, hundreds of billions of dollars.
      This way, sustainable forecasting must be hyper local and reliable in order to optimize actuary work.
2. Micro-climate monitoring and forecasting discovers new business opportunities for insurance market – more personal, more focused.
   As an example, we have solutions for forecasting stroke probability based on micro-climate conditions prior to event and risk group of patient. It is expected stroke expenses will reach 2 trillion dollars in USA only till 2050. (https://www.aan.com/PressRoom/home/PressRelease/401)
3. Additional barrier for implementing climate forecasting in actuary work is actually wrong belief it is expensive and this is only for Re-Insurers. Our approach makes it approachable for small to medium insurance companies with fast payback.

 

 

What is the global market for weather forecasting?

Shapira: The weather forecasting services market size is projected to grow from USD 1.5 billion in 2020 to USD 2.3 billion by 2025, at a CAGR of 9.3% from 2020 to 2025.

Is it much? Absolutely no. It is heavily underestimated.
Tens of billions of dollars invested in weather and climate researches, observations, super-computers and analysis.
Over 80% of businesses are under weather/climate risks. So why we are so easy to evaluate Business Analytics market at USD 67.92 billion in 2020 and is expected to reach USD 103.65 billion by 2026?

As an analogy for forecasting business – astrology services market is 2.2 Billion Dollars! With zero investment in research and development.

People do eager to know their future, the question is who they trust most. And odds are not in favor of meteorology.

 

What clients are you currently working with?

Shapira: We work with UNDP under different projects mainly in agriculture area. We successfully passed the POC with IDF and on the way to supply long range forecasts focused on safety risks for troops during trainings.

 

What investments were made in the company so far?

Shapira: We are fully bootstrapped. We believe that good and reliable product as our forecasts will find its client.
Statistically 1 day added to effective weather forecast each 10 years. We in Emnotion know that game changing forecasting technology is not a matter of financing or amount of recruited PHDs, it is you have it or not. We have it.

 

Tell me about your professional background and about other key figures in the company.

Shapira: Surprisingly none of us is a meteorologist. We come from different areas as Biology, MBA, Mechanical engineering, Civil Engineering, Data Science, Environment.

With over 30 years of accumulated experience in R&D, Marketing and Turn-Key projects, we feel more than confident in our way.

We came to forecasting open minded and with a huge desire to make this world better.